Khamenei's funerals in Iran: high stakes, tensions and weaknesses

Introduction : Ali Khamenei, the former Iran Supreme Leader from 1989 to 2026, was killed on the very first day of the 2026 Iran war led by the United States and Israel, on February 28th. However, the funeral was postponed for months because of the war, finally held in early July for several days. The main ceremonies were held in Tehran, Qom or even Mashhad. Iranian authorities talk about millions of mourners, even though this number is not considered as a matter-of-fact by foreign observers and experts. With more than 100 foreign delegations reportedly attending and images broadcast worldwide, the ceremony intended to reinforce legitimacy of the Islamic Republic after the war. The funerals are presented by the regime as a symbol for national unity, resistance and resilience after the war. 

The remarkable absence of Mojtaba Khamenei : Mojtaba Khamenei, Ali Khamenei’s son, who was already appointed Supreme Leader, was expected to lead funeral prayers, but did not appear publicly, while three other sons were present beside the coffin. His absence became one of the main stories, as analysts say visible leadership is essential during national crises. The official explanation is that he is reportedly recovering from injuries sustained during the strike. But it raises questions over the future of Iran's leadership, as it created speculation over health concerns, security threats, internal political tensions/lack of legitimacy.

The beginning of Iran’s “great revenge”? : The funeral was dominated by calls for revenge, anti-US and anti-Israel slogans, and even banners threatening Western leaders. Iranian officials have promised justice, reinforcing the “martyrdom” narrative. The Revolutionary Guards are expected to play an increasingly central role. But most of all, reports of a "revenge list" circulated in Iranian political discourse. This list would contain Western leaders' names, such as of course Donald Trump, but also Emmanuel Macron. This threat to their security led the U.S. president to quit the NATO summit in Ankara with his traditional Air Force One plane, considered more secured than the one offered by Qatar a few months ago. All those events raise questions: is it only symbolic rhetoric? are cyber operations planned? proxy attacks? direct military retaliation? Analysts are divided: some expect calibrated responses, while others fear regional escalation. 

Conclusion: ceasefire under pressure, latest developments: After the funerals, Iran has been bombed by the U.S. for over seven days and nights. Iran responded by striking American bases in the region, such as in Jordan or Kuwait, killing two American soldiers, added to fourteen others since February 28th. The ceasefire remains extremely fragile, and tensions continued despite official truce. We’ve entered a period of diplomatic uncertainty, which has been the case since the beginning of this war in February. Iran enters a new political era, with a new Supreme Leader, unresolved succession questions and uncertain regional security. But is it the end of one chapter, or the beginning of a much larger confrontation?